M's after election results!!

“Congress sweeps left, right and centre” is the outcome of India’s festival of democracy in 2009. Congress triumphs on 201 seats a highest ever by a party in last 25 years!! Came 16th May and gave us the last poll results for the decade. This election was significant in more than many ways. Major national issues were in the backdrop- the nuclear deal, national security after recent terrorist attacks, economic recession (though Indian elections are hardly fought on such issues on a broad basis the results are going to have a profound impact on them), local issues like the Singur, Muthalik & then of course BIG aspirations of the small parties with
their prime ministerial candidates as Sharad Pawar, Mayawati, Paswaan & Mulayam to name a few!!!!! Also, it was LK Advani’s last chance to become the Prime minister of India. Now after such a strong mandate in favor of the Indian national congress all these aspirations have been grounded for the foreseeable future. Advani has lost his last chance and this election may well be last in his political career.

The results reads us out many vital inferences in the first thought like the left’s poor performance, shrunk base of the regional parties, Lalu’s poor show, Congress’s improved performance in Uttar Pradesh (after atleast two decades) and better than expected performance on a national basis plus interestingly in Modi’s strong hold Gujrat.

Post results there will these M’s crucial now in the government making.

M for Manmohan Singh- He is expected to be India’s next PM of India. Second only to Pandit Nehru to attain office consecutively after a full five year term. Congress in his name finds someone with clean image and an uncontroversial leader. One of the reasons of Congress doing so well in this elections is that it was seen as a more sincere party than its rivals. This was due to Manmohan Singh’s honest image and Sonia Gandhi’s understated style which she maintained during this regime. However, Sonia Gandhi will continue to have her influence over the government being UPA’s chairperson.

M for Mudra (Money)- As we saw last time when the left abandoned the Manmohan Singh government “mudra” or money will play its role again. Now when congress needs only 15 odd more to cross over the magical figure of 272 the spending may be less. Few independents and small parties will automatically join in UPA shrinking the gap towards simple majority. Congress with its good show is in promising mode too and then as we see in coalition politics, mudra can always be bartered and bargained against another M, the M for Mantralaya (ministry)!!

M for Mantralaya (Ministry) - Congress will not have to get away with any major ministry outside UPA for bridging the gap towards majority. However it may always play it as a lucrative card to gain support for reaching and even adding cushion to its majority.

M for Mayawati and Mulayam- Mulayam came to rescue Congress when the “lefts” left. This may well be the time to
return favors. However Congress will also remember the time they left later!! Mayawati too has an attractive figure and will play a key role in the post poll dyanamics. Another fact to be looked into is that Congress must be feeling buoyant after these results and they may be thinking of contesting the coming UP elections on their own. Knowing this it becomes less probable for them to get into an alliance with either Mulayam or Mayawati. Now how Mulayam and Mayawati bargains with their numbers in this "M for Majority" is something to be seen.

God bless our nation and our new government.
Luv n Luk,

Pranjal.

The Foreign Hand

In a press conference in front of the world media, Pakistan’s PM’s advisor on interior affairs Mr. Rehman Malik admits that a “part of” Mumbai “conspiracy” was planned in Pakistani territory. This came as an unexpected turn in Pakistan’s stand on the issue. Starting from the denial mode of not recognizing Kasab as a Pakistani to this position, it is certainly a major achievement the Indian diplomacy has achieved. But is it truly a change of heart or just another ploy???

So is this change out of compulsion or conviction?? It is beyond doubt that it has happened under pressure from western powers specially President Obama’s administration. Pakistan has a history of giving some concessions initially and then it reverts back to same old band music. It gives away little to get huge economic and other aids, and then the Pakistani military gets back to what it knows best. Even in being a close ally to USA in war against terrorism so far Pakistan hasn’t yielded much. It hands over few non critical terrorists while the consequential ones are still elusive.

India should be further skeptical about its neighbor as elements in the Pakistan’s military and ISI still hold terrorism as a foreign policy tool against India. These sections are certainly silent for the moment but more certainly they still exist and with a substantial say in the power matrix of Pakistan. The terror architecture in Pakistan is still intact. There is further suspicion on the diplomatic game plan of Pakistan when Mr. Rehman asks India for further “tenable” and “credible” evidence for its investigation. Now India can provide more evidence to a certain extent but it cannot share its complete intelligence data with a hostile neighbor as Pakistan. Thus now, if investigation fails to bring “justice” to the perpetrators, Pakistan can conveniently point towards India saying that India did not co-operate and bring India in a bad faith.

The content and mention in list of 30 questions also raises some doubts on Pakistan’s true motives. The mention of “local hand”, arrests in Spain and calling it as a only “part” of conspiracy being related into Pakistan could well be its attempt to get a clean chit to its military and ISI involvement in the massacre and give it a “global terrorism” shade with non-state actors being responsible.

Nevertheless, as Pakistan’s media is putting it, it is a “seismic” shift in Pakistan’s position. New Delhi’s response calling it as a “positive development” was apt. It is a big success for Indian diplomacy for Pakistan’s establishment has accepted something which it hadn’t since the “tribal intruders” came to Kashmir in 1947. But the diplomatic game has just begun. In dealing with Pakistan India should be ready for any eventuality. India must keep up the international pressure but also at the same time dilute its dependency on western powers in dealing with Pakistan. For example, when India wants the terror infrastructure inside Pakistan to be dismantled, it is certainly not in the interest of western war on terror there because it will be as bad as opening a third front for the already burdened Pakistan’s military on its northern border.

Where do bi-lateral relations between these neighbors go from here? It is very early to even speculate. But certainly a new dimension has been added. A fragile nuclear neighborhood cannot be in interest of India. Thus, India needs to be very cautious and measured in its approach. We must strengthen the democratic forces in Pakistan and pressurize it to eliminate the complete terror framework operating from its soil, quit terrorism as a state policy, and withdraw financial, political and ideological support that it provides to terrorism against the Republic of India.